Hyundai needs 391,000 monthly sales to meet reduced 2026 goal

Hyundai Motor cut its 2026 wholesale target to 4.0 million vehicles from about 4.158 million, but meeting the reduced goal still requires about 391,000 sales a month in November and December. The company announced the revision in its Oct. 29 results.

Weaker second-half earnings and macroeconomic uncertainty erased the sector’s earlier valuation premium, according to Hanwha Investment & Securities’ analysis posted on Naver on Nov. 10. Other brokerage reports examine whether year-end sales, changes in the mix of vehicles sold and investment returns can support earnings.

Can Hyundai reach 4.0 million?

Hyundai’s tentative January–October sales totalled 3,218,586 vehicles, leaving 781,414 for November and December. That requires an average of about 391,000 a month, roughly 18.5% above October’s 329,773.

In its Nov. 3 comparison, Hana Securities estimates Hyundai needs roughly 10% more monthly wholesale sales than in the final two months of 2024 and 2025. For Kia, the brokerage puts the requirement at about 290,000 vehicles a month against a 3.35 million annual target, more than 10% above the same historical benchmark.

Combining September and October to reduce distortion from the Chuseok holiday, Hana calculates that Hyundai’s global wholesale sales fell 11% year on year while Kia’s rose 8%.

New-model launches are a potential source of sales growth in the brokerage’s assessment. Their contribution depends on how they compete as EV adoption accelerates and Chinese brands expand in Korea and Europe.

Do US sales records mean higher profits?

Both companies reported their best October US sales. Hyundai Motor America sold 73,452 vehicles, up 5% year on year, with hybrid sales rising 20% on the same basis.

At Kia America, sales reached 80,008 vehicles, up 16% year on year. Hybrid sales increased 114% year on year, and the Sportage and Carnival hybrids recorded their best monthly sales. EV9 and EV6 sales rose 111% and 58% year on year, respectively.

The profit implications differ by powertrain. Eugene Investment & Securities, in its Nov. 5 report, attributes the EV9 and EV6 increases partly to a low year-earlier base and warns that stronger EV sales may weigh on profitability. That is a risk assessment, rather than evidence of a realised decline in profit.

How should physical-AI investment be valued?

Shinhan Securities’ automotive outlook, posted on Naver on Nov. 9, examines the tension between funding autonomous driving, software-defined vehicles and robotics, and maintaining profits from selling cars.

Its analysts argue that high interest rates reduce the present value of future cash flows, while depreciation and development costs weigh on current earnings. They expect greater scrutiny of cost savings, the timing of cash returns and returns on invested capital.

Consolidating vehicle controllers offers cost-saving potential, in the brokerage’s analysis, by reducing wiring and hardware complexity. For robotaxis and humanoid robots, its assessment focuses on total ownership costs and actual utilisation, rather than production alone.

What supports Kia’s dividend case?

Dividend income is central to Daishin Securities’ Nov. 11 approach to carmakers during continued uncertainty. The brokerage includes Kia among its November picks, alongside Hyundai AutoEver and SL Corp.

For Kia, Daishin forecasts a full-year 2026 dividend of 6,800 won per share.