Brokers back Samsung SDI's ESS outlook as adjusted automotive battery revenue falls in Q3

Higher price targets for Samsung SDI in selected brokerage reports reflect expectations for expanding energy storage system (ESS) orders and production. The post-results reports also estimate that third-quarter automotive battery revenue fell from the second quarter after excluding one-off items.

The reports preceded the Nov. 6 fall: Samsung SDI closed at 468,000 won, down 8.06%, while the KOSPI fell 6.02% to 5,059.69. Most of the post-results reports used the Oct. 29 closing price of 538,000 won.

What do the targets cover?

Samsung SDI reported third-quarter operating profit of 407.8 billion won on Oct. 29. Revenue rose 52.6% year on year to 4.69 trillion won. The profit exceeded the 191.3 billion won consensus cited in the selected October reports. Those reports put US advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPC) at 122.5 billion won and identified customer compensation as another contributor.

The 11 selected reports, dated Oct. 8–30, carried Buy ratings, with a median target of 800,000 won. Targets ranged from 667,000 won to 1,000,000 won; the lowest was 42.5% above the Nov. 6 close. This is a selected sample, not a comprehensive survey of reports available as of Nov. 6. The DS report preceded the earnings announcement.

Brokerage	Report date	Rating	Target price
Mirae Asset Securities	Oct. 29, 2026	Buy	1,000,000 won
DS Investment & Securities	Oct. 8, 2026 (pre-results report)	Buy	940,000 won
Yuanta Securities Korea	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	913,000 won
SK Securities	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	810,000 won
Shinhan Securities	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	800,000 won
IBK Securities	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	800,000 won
iM Securities	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	800,000 won
Daishin Securities	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	750,000 won
Eugene Investment & Securities	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	700,000 won
Kiwoom Securities	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	670,000 won
Hana Securities	Oct. 30, 2026	Buy	667,000 won

Target-price horizons vary by brokerage.

What supports the ESS forecasts?

The company reported more than 60 GWh of ESS orders secured in 2026 by Oct. 29. In its Oct. 30 report, Shinhan Securities cited a full-year order target above 120 GWh. Neither figure represents the undelivered order backlog.

Confirmed volumes could keep the SPE and Ulsan lines fully occupied through 2028, according to Eugene Investment & Securities’ Oct. 30 report. Its analysts reported that the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) line at StarPlus Energy (SPE) in the US began mass production in early October, with Samsung Battery Box (SBB) systems due for delivery from December. The brokerage also reported the acquisition of GM’s entire Synergy Cells stake in August.

Further capacity additions remain forecasts: Shinhan expects two more line conversions in the first half of 2027 and Synergy Cells operations to begin in the second half of 2028. It raised its target from 740,000 won to 800,000 won. In an Oct. 30 report, Daishin Securities raised its target to 750,000 won, citing ESS and battery backup unit growth among its reasons.

What do adjusted revenue and profit estimates show?

Excluding one-off items, third-quarter automotive battery revenue fell about 19% from the second quarter, iM Securities estimated on Oct. 30. Its analysts cited a lower share at the main customer and inventory adjustments at SPE. In its report that day, SK Securities estimated a 15% decline excluding compensation, although revenue including that payment increased.

Volumes from existing BMW projects would keep falling until a new project starts in early 2028, Hana Securities expected in its Oct. 30 report. For the fourth quarter of 2026, Eugene expects higher European volume-model sales to be offset by declining volumes from existing projects, leaving utilisation broadly unchanged. It forecasts revenue of 3.8 trillion won and operating profit of 271.0 billion won, with profit declining from a third quarter lifted by compensation.

The brokerages’ ESS profit estimates differ in their treatment of production credits and provisions. SK estimated a small third-quarter profit including AMPC after quality provisions, but a loss excluding the credits. Shinhan assessed ESS and small batteries favourably after removing provisions it described as upfront costs. Hana estimated that safety-upgrade provisions widened the third-quarter ESS loss excluding AMPC.

At the company level, IBK Securities’ Oct. 30 report estimated third-quarter operating profit excluding one-off items at about 150 billion won. In its report that day, Yuanta Securities Korea estimated 100 billion to 200 billion won excluding compensation and provisions, including AMPC. These are company-wide estimates, not ESS segment profits.