Brokers differ on Samsung SDI's one-off gains; shares fell 8.1% on Nov. 6

Samsung SDI’s third-quarter profit beat forecasts, but brokerages differ over the net benefit from customer compensation and provisions. All 10 firms reviewed rate the battery maker Buy, with targets ranging from 667,000 won to 1 million won in reports dated Oct. 29–30, 2026.

The shares fell 8.06% to 468,000 won at the Nov. 6 KST close, when the KOSPI lost 6.02% to 5,059.69 (our Nov. 6 market report). Most of the Oct. 30 reports used a reference share price of 538,000 won.

How much profit remained after one-offs?

Revenue reached 4.69 trillion won, up 20.9% from the previous quarter and 52.6% from a year earlier. Operating profit rose 100.1% from the previous quarter to 407.8 billion won, including 122.5 billion won in U.S. advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPC). The reported revenue figures also include AMPC. The 191.3 billion won operating profit consensus cited by Yuanta, iM and Kiwoom was less than half the result.

For the net one-off benefit, SK and IBK estimated about 250 billion won, with customer compensation partly offset by provisions. Daishin estimated about 200 billion won. By contrast, iM put the net effect at 300 billion to 400 billion won. Its analysts estimated gross gains of about 500 billion won, linked to compensation for ending the GM joint venture, and provisions of about 150 billion won in the energy storage systems (ESS) and small-battery businesses.

Compensation estimates alone are a different measure: Kiwoom put that item at about 350 billion won and Eugene at 300 billion won. Those figures do not represent the net benefit after provisions.

Excluding one-offs but retaining AMPC, Yuanta estimated operating profit at 100 billion to 200 billion won. On the same basis, IBK put operating profit at about 150 billion won, compared with roughly breakeven in the second quarter.

How widely do the targets differ?

The median target among the 10 reviewed brokerages is 800,000 won.

Brokerage	Date	Rating	Target Price
Mirae Asset Securities	Oct. 29	Buy	1,000,000 won
Yuanta Securities Korea	Oct. 30	Buy	913,000 won
SK Securities	Oct. 30	Buy	810,000 won
Shinhan Securities	Oct. 30	Buy	800,000 won (from 740,000)
IBK Securities	Oct. 30	Buy	800,000 won
iM Securities	Oct. 30	Buy	800,000 won
Daishin Securities	Oct. 30	Buy	750,000 won (raised)
Eugene Investment & Securities	Oct. 30	Buy	700,000 won (raised)
Kiwoom Securities	Oct. 30	Buy	670,000 won
Hana Securities	Oct. 30	Buy	667,000 won

Target-price horizons vary by brokerage; Daishin’s target is for six months.

At the top of that range, Mirae Asset argued that Samsung SDI was beginning to gain share from Chinese suppliers in the United States and Europe. Eugene based its 700,000 won target on 2.4 times estimated 2027 book value per share.

Where do EV weakness and provisions weigh?

EV battery revenue excluding customer compensation declined slightly, according to Hana, which estimated that the unit remained loss-making. Its analysts expect volumes at BMW, the largest customer, to keep falling until a new project starts in early 2028.

iM estimated that auto battery revenue excluding one-offs fell 19% quarter-on-quarter, while SK estimated a 15% decline. iM attributed the decline to lost share at the main customer and inventory adjustments at the U.S. StarPlus Energy (SPE) plant; SK cited lower European customer and North American joint-venture volumes.

Storage growth also carried costs. Quality provisions left ESS only slightly profitable and loss-making without AMPC in SK’s assessment. Provisions for safety-system upgrades at installed sites worsened margins excluding AMPC, according to Hana.

Daishin expects fourth-quarter operating profit to fall from the third quarter as one-off gains drop out. Eugene forecasts fourth-quarter operating profit of 271 billion won on revenue of 3.8 trillion won.

What storage expansion is already under way?

Stronger sales of ESS and battery backup units (BBUs) supported third-quarter earnings as AI data-centre demand expanded, Samsung SDI said in its Oct. 29 results announcement. The company reported more than 60 GWh of ESS orders secured during the year, a European EV project for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and shipments of all-solid-state battery samples for humanoid robots.

Shinhan cited Samsung SDI’s target to secure at least 120 GWh of new ESS orders in 2026. The brokerage also cited plans to convert two additional production lines to LFP in the first half of 2027 and a target to commercialise all-solid-state batteries in the second half of 2027.

U.S. LFP production had already begun: Samsung SDI said mass production at the SPE plant started in October 2026.